Re: [piecepack] Tula Stats [WAS Re: Session Report - Easy Slider, One Man Thrag!

["Mike Schoessow" <mikeschoessow@...>]

An interesting question for solitaire players is, what win ratio do you prefer? I have the impression that many players prefer games in which they can win roughly fifty percent of the time. Personally, I like games in which wins are rare, but in which considerable progress is common. This is how I design my own solitaires. I have a number of playing card solitaires I've designed that fit this pattern (O.T. shameless plug follows). For anyone who's interested, I have a couple of card solitaires specifically designed to be conveniently playable on an airline tray table. Any interested frequent fliers, e-mail me at mjs@....

-Mike

> >
> > [...] seems to me that this is more in the patience catagory
>
>Agreed.
>
> > 1. 11 tiles off (beginners luck)
> > 2. No plays
> > 3. No plays
> > 4. No plays
> > 5. 3 off
> > 6. 1 off
> > 7. 2 off
> > 8. 1 off
> > 9. 1 off
> > 10. 2 off
>
>Excellent!  Thank you so much for recording your scores; I have wondered 
>about
>Tula's win ratio and how many many tiles one typically removes.  Your 
>report is much
>appreciated.
>
>Your results seemed very low to me, so I just ran some aditional trials.  I 
>played
>20 games of standard Tula in one hour.  I _did_ count the first tile (even 
>though it's a
>gimme) which you did not in the table above, so for a strict comparison, 
>subtract 1
>from my numbers below.  I always play with the Mercy variant, and I have 
>indicated
>whether or not I used it.
>
>1. 21 off
>2. 7 off
>3. 21 off (mercied)
>4. 21 off
>5. 2 off
>6. 21 off
>7. WON
>8. 2 off
>9. no plays
>10. 6 off
>
>11. 2 off
>12. 2 off (mercied)
>13. 8 off
>14. 23 off
>15. WON
>16. no plays
>17. 2 off
>18. 23 off (mercied)
>19. 13 off (mercied)
>20. 17 off
>
>So, a few stats (using my own results only):
>win ratio = 1/10 (which is what I had guessed based on previous plays)
>no plays ratio = 1/10 (unless you don't use mercy, in which case 2/5)
>early loss ratio (>13 tiles off, includes no plays) = 1/2
>almost made it ratio (20+ tiles off) = 3/10
>average tiles removed = 12 (unless you don't use mercy, in which case 9)
>average game duration = 3 minutes
>
>The average tiles removed in your results is 3 (after adding the gimme 
>first tile back
>in).  Now I am very curious.  Did you just get bad shuffles?  Has anyone 
>else happened
>to have tracked results?
>
>Much Thanks,
>James
>
It seems I may have been the victim of a series of unlucky shuffles.  I was 
telling Meredith about this when she got home and she tried it.  She play 
three games with theses results.  She didn't use mercy at all and this time 
I am counting the first tile.  : )

1.  22 off
2.  4 off
3.  23 off

As I said, I am open to others showing me that it can be more likely to win 
than my sampling indicated.  I still think that while there are some choices 
to be made, and they are important to make correctly, winning at Tula is too 
dependant on a lucky shuffle for me.  But I may live to eat those words, 
it's happened before.  : )

Kisa